After seeing the true nature of the Russian assault on Ukraine it is time for the USA and NATO to institute a no fly zone and state that interfering will trigger whatever response is appropriate. The USA and NATO also have plenty of nuclear weapons. If Russia wants to escalate so be it.
We should also realize that the threat of nuclear war frightens not only the West but the Russians as well. The greater the fear the greater will be the spine of the Russians around Putin that can stop him.

It is in the long term interests of the US to have alliances with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia in the East and with Europe, NATO, Russia and Ukraine in the West. That would create a fairly even balance with China. Such a balance would likely build a lasting stability where both sides could get on and build economically AND deal with the real threat everyone faces which is the growing problem of climate change.
While Russia remains an outlier there will be dislocation in in the long term as well as short term and the real issue will not be solved. For Russia to keep thinking it should be a superpower is as out of date as it became for the UK, France. Spain and every other empire of the past.
Meanwhile, as with most dictators from the past, they eventually bite off more than they can chew. It happened to Alexander the Great, Napoleon, Hitler and so many others. Now it is Putin’s turn. With any luck his time will pass quickly and Russia can reenter the world where it should be and we can focus on the real challenge humanity faces.
We can keep putting off dealing with difficult and expensive problems but one day we cant avoid the problem. If history is any guide we will probably be too late.

Conspiracy theories are all the rage these days. Trump still claims the election was stolen and a not insignificant chunk of the public believe him. Russia is selling that Ukraine photos and videos of the war and especially what happened in Bucha is “fake news” and created by Ukraine to support their point of view – and a not insignificant chunk of the Russian public believe it. Its amazing what people will believe if they want to -AND if they watch only one source of news. Its true: if you know how to do it you can sell snow to the Eskimos.
So imagine if the Biden administration was setting Putin up with a war in Ukraine in a devious plan to achieve short term and long term goals fostering the interests of the United States. What would those goals have looked like?
1. The US long term interests depend on a close relationship with allies to maintain a counter balance to China. That means keeping Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada and Europe on side. Lets face it; with Brexit in the UK, Victor Orban in Hungary, Germany becoming reliant on Russian oil and even Polish issues, Europe was looking like it was beginning to fray. Donald Trump did not help and was vocal in his opposition to the idea of a European Union. So it was imperative to keep Europe together economically.
2. Like the EEC NATO was becoming viewed as no longer relevant- also encouraged by Donald Trump who also rightly complained that many of the countries did not pay their fair share of the costs. The Biden administration considered NATO not only relevant but also important AND like Trump wanted each European country to pay what they were supposed to. Also like previous administrations were not happy about Germany and others becoming more dependent on Russian oil and gas. So in the short term, it was important for Putin’s Russia to be seen as a potential threat.
3. Putin was moving Russia back to the time it saw the West as the natural enemy AND towards an autocratic form of government akin to the time of the Tsars. In an ever more interdependent world this movement was not good for anybody. The idea that Russia was always “on the other side” had to be nipped in the bud before it became a real problem. So Putin and his way of thinking had to go. Needless to say such autocratic thinking was also taking hold in the US and some Western countries so undermining Putin think was important in that regard as well.
4. The Russian army has to be seen as the paper tiger it really was and Russian arms less attractive on the world market.
5. Ukraine was becoming an issue that needed to be resolved. It wanted to become an EEC member AND join NATO. Yet there were “fraternal feelings” between Russians and Ukrainians that might stand in the way so cleaning up where Ukraine was headed and where Russia was headed under Putin had to be brought to a head.
6. Of course there were some other benefits like the profits the defense industry would reap from a shooting war, the profits the oil companies (many US owned) would make from less oil on the market etc. Then there was the problem of demographics and the declining populations of Europe who could use a new blood work force- blood preferably from another European country not Africa or the Middle East. On top of that, a brain drain from Russia towards the West might also be a benefit as to the more educated were not likely to go for the direction Putin was taking Russia in.
So there were many benefits that might be achieved by Russia going to war with Ukraine. But how would one get Putin to fall for the plot? Would he be that stupid? Well, Fox News and the Republicans have been quite vocal 24/7 fostering the view that Biden was weak and ineffectual and indeed Tucker Carlson went so far as to say “Why should I care about Ukraine?” So it would be easy to come to the conclusion that the US would squawk but be unlikely to do something other than slap a few sanctions on Russia. Europe too would likely squawk but then again the dependence on oil and gas would most likely keep the EEC divided and not able to do much. Remember, not much happened after the Crimea take over. Ukraine would likely fold as Zilensky would likely take up the US on its offer to escape and form a government in exile.
From Putin’s perspective a war with Ukraine posed little long term problems and he presumed a short term victory that would enhance his popularity as taking the Crimea had done. Put enough force on the boarder and it should be over quickly and soon be forgotten.
So what happened? In short, US interests have won out like in a big way. NATO is revived big time, EEC strengthened, Germany terminating Northstream 2 and moving to get off of Russian gas AND finally increasing its defense budget ( now number 3 after the US and China). Ukraine and Russia now firmly in opposite camps. Russian army and Putin’s intentions seen for what they really are. When Putin is finally defeated and overthrown the plot will have succeeded in all expectations.
The unfortunate thing of course, is all the Ukrainians who will die in the process

Russian mothers will at some point be told of their dead soldiers but most live far from Moscow so not of serious concern to Putin. BUT the word of what really happened in the Ukraine, the devastation of the cities, killing of civilians, bombing of hospitals and orphanages etc will eventually get out as all those 200,000 soldiers eventually go home. They will have photos, they know what they did, saw things first hand, so in the end the truth will get out. Today the Russian people who get their news from state media support Putin and believe what they are being told. When they know the truth they will see things differently.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians will not forget whatever the outcome. They will have hatred for Russia for generations. That includes the Russian speakers. So the idea of a fraternal relationship between the two countries will be a thing of the past.
There is also the resurgence of the fear of Russia as a hostile neighbor capable of encroachment at any time. This has persisted in the border states but now it has become accepted in states further to the West. Russia IS now seen as the enemy. This is not good. Not good for the Russians, not good for all the rest of the Europeans. As long as Putin is the leader and Russia maintains an authoritarian government this view will persist. It is important for this view to be diminished sooner than later before it infects the younger generation who want to be Europeans and are not concerned about being a superpower any more than the French or British youth are. Putin wants Russia to be a superpower but it is not. The younger generation has different priorities.
There is lots of criticism flying about and Friday morning quarterbacking going on especially from those out to push a political agenda. Though is is nearly impossible to keep secrets these days things are going on, weapons delivered, etc that are kept secret. That’s as it should be. What we don’t need is the constant spilling the beans by the media and the constant negative attacks on what the governments are doing from places like Fox which just serve to encourage Russian aggression and confuse our public. Thousands are being displaced and killed. Time for some social responsibility. Not the time to score points for this political party or that.

Putin made his move into Ukraine without any way to get out without loosing huge face. A very stupid strategy to be sure but that is what he did. So the US is correct that believing Russian statements about moving east are just about regrouping to continue the attempt to take over Ukraine in a few weeks. There is no way he can sell a more limited goal as if that was his intention in the first place. He made it all to clear what his intentions were at the beginning. Besides, there are only two ways for Putin. One is taking Ukraine and the other is getting removed from power by force. There are no half way houses for him. No off ramps. Either he wins or he looses and if he looses that will be his life.
Meanwhile the US and NATO have to see Putin defeated and Biden was totally right – he cannot remain in power in Russia. There is no way any company and most countries can do business with Russia again if Putin is the leader AND too many countries need to be able to deal with Russia. If someone in Russia cant kill him then there will be a hit man somewhere else that will do it. The stakes are too high – there is too much money involved- to leave Putin in power. So Putin has no choice. He either wins and does so sooner than later or he is a dead man. For everyone’s sake including the Russians, lets hope he is the latter.

Traveling to Europe for the past 10 days I got back to the US thinking something in the news would change. What I found was the Fox pundits, Hannity, Ingraham, etc still spend most of their time attacking anything Democrat and Biden. Are they employees of Trumpian “Republicans” or what? And the “extreme right wing” that still spouts Putin talking points and are shown regularly on Russian state TV? One would think with all the bad news we hear about Ukraine, everyone would focus on that without trying to score political points all the time or double down on support of ideas which we can all see are utter nonsense. — Still find it strange people who should know better are talking about an “off ramp” for Putin. Biden said it well “this man cannot remain in power”. Russians I know tell me they wake up each morning hoping to hear that Putin has been overthrown.
Whatever the US Government public position is on “regime change” the reality is that the world would be better off if Putin was eliminated. And it is the only realistic way to end the war in a way that gives Russia an off ramp, and allows Zilensky to have more maneuverability as well. There is no way that after entire cities have been destroyed, millions turned into refugees and displaced, not to mention all the deaths that letting Putin off the hook is a remote possibility. To imagine so is dreaming.
Looking at the Russian invasion of Ukraine from a long term view of what is the best outcome for the United States and the countries to the west of Russia, it is important for Putin and if there is such a thing as “Putinism” to be clearly defeated. It is NOT in anyone’s interests, not Russian, the US nor Europeans including Ukrainians for Putin to win. The Europeans need Russia to be brought back into the fold, for Russian oil to be available, as well as grain, fertilizer etc and Ukrainian agricultural goods such as wheat. Putin’s idea that Russia must be separate from Europe has to be defeated once and for all just like Germany was after world war two. A Putin defeat will also cause the Chinese to think twice about invading Taiwan.
All the criticism about Biden’s supposed gaffe calling for “regime change” is bullshit. Of course what we want is regime change, not just for US interests, European, Ukrainian but also for Russian. Free the Russian press. Free Navalny and allow opposition, and bring back McDonalds! Putin’s world view is way out of date. We also have to put the idea of a nuclear exchange potential back in the box or we will one day have to face it for real. Putin has opened that door, the world has to close it again and fast before the idea catches on.
Another bit of news I found interesting were the revelations about the wife of Supreme Court Judge Clarence Thomas. Always thought he was a kook, but his wife it turns out is REALLY the kooky one. Referred to as a “conservative activist” I cannot see how overthrowing the US Government can be considered “conservative”. She is no Republican nor a Conservative – just a nutty and dangerous kook in a position to influence an important arm of our US government.

It seems one can never escape from positive references to Donald Trump even when it comes to Ukraine. Fox “News”uses the war as a way to tout “what Trump would have done” or “why did Russia not invade while Trump was President?” As an intellectual exercise lets look at what Putin must have been thinking. First, I think it is safe to assume that Putin thought that Trump was going to be re-elected President, Second that the idea of invading Ukraine was already set in Putin’s mind. If Trump had been re-elected one could assume that Trump would most likely push Russian interests over Ukrainian giving Putin a free hand. As a consistent practitioner of revenge one can also assume having not succeeded getting Zilensky to play ball and give him dirt on Biden he would have little sympathy for Ukraine and take pleasure in taking his revenge on Zilensky. He made it clear oftn that he did not have much regard for Ukraine while at the same time he touted his “great relationship” with Putin. He proved this when he called the Russian invasion “genius” and Putin “smart”.
Add the negative feeling for Ukraine and the positive feeling for Putin to the antipathy towards NATO and the Western European leaders and we have a scenario that Zilensky could not have believed Western Europe nor the USA would come to his aid. Trump was vocal in his disdain for the European Economic Union and cheered Britain leaving the block with Brexit. It is unlikely that the European nations would have pulled together if they knew the US was apathetic to Ukraine. Trump felt much like useful idiot Tucker Carlson “why should we care about Ukraine?” The US absent from the game would undermine any moves the Western Europeans might have taken.
So if Trump had been President it is likely that Ukraine would have been forced to give in to Russian demands – Putin could have gotten what he wanted without firing a shot much like Hitler in 1938.
Why did Russia not invade during Trump’s Presidency? Several reasons come to mind. First Trump was doing what Putin wanted so why rock the boat and put Trump in an awkward position. “If it ain’t broke dont fix it”. Second, the Russian army was not yet ready to take on a country as large as Ukraine even with the false assumptions Putin made. Turns out it was even less ready in 2022.
Meanwhile one should also note that Fox has not been shy at calling President Biden “weak” and “feckless” so an argument can be made that Fox contributed to Putin’s idea that he could get away with taking Ukraine and not much would happen. One of the channel’s main pundits is often played on Russian propaganda stations as he touts Putin’s talking points. The station often gives voice to appeasement types so it is fair to add Fox to one of the supporting reasons for Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

In spite of the tragic events we see every hour on out TV screens inflicted by the Putin war on Ukraine, – taking a dispassionate view (if possible?) it is interesting to see the reaction of the media – especially Fox “News”, Aside from some excellent reporting from the field, the pundits, the bimbo brigade, and appeasement types like useful idiot Tucker Carlson, Fox cannot help but use every opportunity to either make fun of the President and Vice President and all Democrats in general or belittle all policies as if there is an election happening next week and Fox is 100% supporting the Republicans and the Trump fans within that party. Easy to criticize if you dont have to take responsibility. Hannity for instance spent a few minutes with an impassioned support of the Ukrainians then turned to his usual mix of belittling and attacking the President and what he calls the supposed Democrat “radical socialist” policies like climate change. Laura Ingraham is almost worse as she is less convincing and adds a bit of appeasement into her mix. Useful idiot Tucker Carlson; well he has become very “useful” to Putin and appears regularly on Russian TV spouting Putin talking points. Why Fox has a team of obvious bimbos talking military strategy they know nothing about is strange given they have women on the network who are not stupid and can make sense when they are not forced to follow party lines. The problem is when you say something stupid then something smart the truth is muddied along with credibility. Particularly interesting today, is the support from the Fox bimbo brigade for the Russian producer on TV 1 in Russia who dared to call out what was happening in Ukraine and her shame for the propaganda spouted daily on the station while they are guilty of never veering off party line politics themselves.
Its tough to see the brutality of the Putin agenda and marry that to Trump’s cheerleading for Putin and authoritarianism. The only pleasure of this war is watching the squirming of the right wing media and politicians as they try to avoid unfortunate truths and associations.

It is disturbing to still hear ideas of an off ramp for Putin. How does one give an off ramp to a war criminal? The only off ramp is for a new leader of Russia. Who is going to repay for the damage to all the cities and towns of Ukraine? Are the people going to accept all the deaths and see no one pay a price? The time will soon come that we will have to call Putin’s bluff. The threat of nuclear war will cause the people around Putin to finally get rid of him. They dont want a nuclear war either.

There is a US midterm election coming up so Fox “News” devotes its narrative to attacking the Democratic President, Vice President and any other Democrat they can attack. Its easier to attack than defend when the defense has to face the consequences but the attacker does not. The main attack is on oil policy of the Biden Presidency. However there is one reality that has been missed but starting with what is an obvious truth. The US and Europe need to be free from dependence on oil, and gas. We can all agree on that.
Meanwhile; IF greater attention and investment had gone into renewables 20 years ago – then the need for so much oil and gas would be far less today. Climate Change deniers (Trump was one lets not forget) can therefore be blamed for the current predicament just as much as much as any current Biden policy.
The other truth is that no matter what policy is adopted today it will have little effect on oil supply in the short term. In the long term building solar electricity facilities can have just much impact as drilling, building new oil facilities, pipelines or the like can. The difference is that the former is the smarter strategy for the long term future of the planet.