Republican talking points are stating that the Polls show that Biden is not perceived to be doing well on anything THEREFORE he should change course. Kelly Anne Conway went so far as to say that “changing course” based on what polls were saying was what good leaders should do. She is incorrect. Leaders that change course based on polls are not “leaders” they are followers. The great leaders take the long view and do not succumb to polls that tell you what people think today.

There is so much talk on every side about what to do amid horrible scenes we witness on TV. Some use the war as an excuse to criticize opponents, others talk of appeasement, all would like it to stop. However there are some realities we need to face.
1. As Sting said in his lyric “the Russians love their children too”. BOTH the WEST and RUSSIA do not want a nuclear war.
2. Putin has alone threatened nuclear war and by doing so seemingly stopped moves to make him cease what he is doing. This is a lesson for him as well as other nations considering getting a nuclear weapon. We cannot allow such thinking to succeed. Putin’s bluff needs to be called now or we will pay a price later.
3. There is a lot of talk about an “off ramp”. All the talk is giving one to Putin. The reality is that there IS an off ramp for Russia BUT there is not for Putin. AND there also has to be an off ramp for Zilensky and the Ukrainians and for the West as well. No nation or leader can end the conflict without having someone pay the price of all the tragedy we have seen. Lucky for the Russians, Putin alone has been blamed so his removal from power opens up the doors to compromise. No one is going to let a War Comitial off the hook and the Ukrainians certainly will not nor should they. The sooner we realize that the better for everyone.
4. The COMPROMISE could look something like this: A. If Putin is arrested and delivered to the Hague to stand trial for war crimes AND all Russian troops leave Ukraine the West will immediately end all sanctions – on banks, oligarchs, oil, EVERYTHING. No general or government official below Putin will be blamed nor prosecuted. B. Ukraine will agree to let the Russian section of the Dombas hold elections monitored by the UN and if the region decides to leave Ukraine and join Russia the Ukraine will end its claim to that region. The same goes for Crimea. C. Ukraine will agree NOT to join NATO provided Russia agrees to demilitarize its border area with Ukraine AND to recognize Ukraine as an independent sovereign nation. D. Ukraine WILL be free to join the European Union if it wishes to and is invited to do so. E. No offensive weapons will be placed in Ukraine.

The reality is simple. A compromise can be reached BUT there is one thing stopping it and that is PUTIN. Incentive must be given to the Russian people AND to the Russian generals and government leaders to make a compromise possible. Give Russia an off ramp but NOT Putin. Give Zilensky and the Ukrainian people an off ramp as well. With those off ramps this horrible war can end.

One thing about the Ukraine War is it makes us think about ideas we have accepted as fact in the past.
For instance, why does anyone believe that Russia should be any different from France or Great Britain or ancient Rome or ancient Greece?
Those countries and civilizations had to face the reality that they were no longer the great powers they once were. The fact that Putin can’t accept that Russia is no longer a super power is his failing not ours. Great Britain had to face this fact, so did France and civilizations going back to the beginning of recorded time. Russia ranks 11 in the GDP scale behind such countries like Canada, and Italy. The only reason it is not being bombed back to the stone age now is because it has nuclear weapons.
I hear some commentators saying Russia has not gotten the respect it deserved as a means to justify Putin’s thinking. Perhaps those commentators believe a GDP ranking of 11 makes one special. The reality is that Russia is not any more special then Britain or France are and there is no reason it should be treated so. In fact, placing it on the United Nations security council is a gift it should not get based on its economy. Other countries are more deserving in that regard. Meanwhile, France, Britain, India, Pakistan, China, Israel and Pakistan not to mention the USA are also nuclear powers and probably North Korea as well. Should they all get more respect just because they have nuclear weapons? And lets be real – the world is not binary any more. If anything China is a far bigger deal than Russia ever will be. India could be as well. Putin and his successors will have to get used to the fact that times have changed, just like Great Britain, France, Spain, etc etc had to. Or they need to buckle up and take advantage of the vast resources it has and develop its economic potential to become a world leader. If its leaders want to be treated as great they need to make the country great. Invading Ukraine will not make them great.
Sorry, I don’t buy the argument that Russia was mistreated. It was treated just as it deserved. Putin is just another cry baby except he has nuclear weapons. That is reality.

A little known Russian breakaway region of Moldova borders Moldova and Ukraine and if the Odessa area is taken by Russia the Transnistria region of Moldova will certainly be taken as well. Just under 30% of the Transnistria region are Russian but they run the place and presumably would rejoice at being joined to Russia. Moldova should be preparing which means Rumania as well. The Ukrainian invasion might well end up being more than Ukraine.

Iran has a great opportunity to eliminate the sanctions and sell its oil at the new high price. In spite of the over the top fear of Iran that has been encouraged largely by the Israelis, Iran now has a chance to rewrite this view by showing support for Ukraine, opposition to Russia, and willingness to stop its nuclear program. Its calls for “death to America” and “death to Israel” have never played well in the West and dont seem to have done much to help domestically either. Eliminating those statements from public pronouncements would lead to great benefits, and lets face it there is no intention of Iran to strike Israel or the USA with a nuclear weapon. Time to be smart and take advantage of what’s going on in Ukraine. As many Israeli leaders have come to realize, the Obama era nuclear deal was a far better deal than Trump’s and Netanyahu’s abandonment of it. Meanwhile our hesitation to respond to the brutal Russian invasion BECAUSE Russia has nuclear weapons just gives the Iranians all the more reason to want a nuclear bomb. The US should also look at eliminating tariffs from such places as Morocco which supplies phosphates for fertilizer. To Replace supplies of nutrients from Russia, we need to open up other sources and make it easier and cheaper for such supplies to enter the US market. The US has been prepared to work with dictators and people we don’t like in the past. We do it now. So lets do it for Ukraine.

The NATO forces, the Ukrainian army as well as the Russian army have been designed for defensive purposes. There is a big difference between design for defense and design for offense. In defense one can expect the support of the local population. Supply lines are shorter. In offence everyone of the local population could be a hostile, and most of all there is a big issue of moral. Fighting for one’s home is a major moral booster. The Russian army was NOT built for offense which is why it has become seen as ineffective in its invasion of Ukraine. Zilensky is right; air power is the key. The only reason the Russian army is having any success rests solely with its air power. Eliminate that advantage and a Russian invading army becomes a paper tiger. This fact has not been lost on the Finns nor the Swedes. NATO provides air power and a big reason for joining. Meanwhile it is beginning to dawn on European and US leadership that we are already in a war – AND that we must win it. That means what the US and NATO needs to do is push our supposed allies, Saudi Arabia, UAE, India, Israel, etc and even supposed enemies as Iran, Venezuela to get with the program, supply oil etc or else. I emphasize that THIS SHOULD BE DONE BEHIND THE SCENES; NO SENSE IN EMBARASSING ANYONE PUBLICALLY. Its all hands on deck time. Lets remember what What Churchill said 70 years ago. “If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.”

As a side note to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the degree of surprise US military planners have seen at the sorry state of the Russian military. Not well motivated nor well organized but more than that they appeared to have impressive hardware but when we have seen them in action they are easily taken out with far cheaper small arms one man can operate. Putin has inadvertently exposed serious weaknesses in the military that he has spent so much money building up. The conclusion is that if he had no nuclear weapons to use as a threat, his forces could have been eliminated in short order. It means that for wars in the future large targets are to vulnerable and greater emphasis has to be placed on smaller weaponry that can be snuck into a war zone without triggering a nuclear response.
By the way, watched a bit of Mark Levin on Fox today. so much bullshit views, scare crap about Iran, of course anti Biden no matter what he does. Mark Levin is an idiot!

From the 1100s, to the 1800s the main political dividing line in Europe was between England and France. By the end of the 1800s that dividing line moved Eastward putting Germany on the “other” side. Even after the defeat of Germany after World War I France still considered Germany a future threat and built the Maginot LIne defense system on its Eastern border with Germany. During this entire period there was not much difference between all these countries. The religion was Christian (though of various sects), the royal families were actually related, the culture was similar as was the racial make up of the countries. The defeat of Germany in 1945 moved that dividing line yet again eastward behind what Churchill dubbed the “Iron Curtain”. This time the division was mainly political with Russian communism becoming the system of the East. This put Eastern Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Rumania, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Baltic states etc on the “other” side. On the Western side of this dividing line the fear was Russia and Communism would move Western so NATO was created as a defense to prevent this. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union freed the Eastern European countries to decide their own fate and they all (except for Belarus) decided to join Western Europe. For a period even Russia itself was looking Westward and the dividing line between East and West became blurred and to some non existent. All of the countries abandoned “Communism” as their economic system. However, just like France after WW1 still fearing Germany to its east, the Eastern European countries continued their fear Russia to their east and pushed to join NATO. Meanwhile as the Europe moved into the 21st Century the dividing line between Russia and the Westward European countries seemed to be evaporating. It no longer was automatically seen as a natural dividing line. “Capitalism” replaced “Communism” as the political system. Christianity which had been suppressed under the Communist regime was back in favor. So there did not seem to be any reason for a dividing line any more. Russia was European after all. However, with the rise of Putin Russia began incorporating authoritarian aspects into the political system. This was slow and did not appear dangerous. In fact Putin became very popular for a while as he seemed to be pulling Russia together after the failures of Yeltsin. Meanwhile Putin made it clear quite early in his rise that he considered the “fall of the Soviet Union” as the greatest disaster of the 20th Century. No one took it particularly seriously. As we now know, Putin retained his KGB Soviet Union way of thinking. He wanted to regain what he considered was lost by the collapse of the Soviet Union. In other words he was looking to the past and a dividing line that was to the West of Russia. He was thinking yet again that Russia was separate from the “West” and must therefore have natural spheres of influence. Putin moved more and more towards authoritarianism imprisoning or poisoning political opposition, controlling the media and elections that insured his position. In fact he was rebuilding a political dividing line between democracies and authoritarianism but in such a way that it did not appear to most in the West that it could become dangerous. President Bush “saw his soul” and saw no danger. President Trump liked him more than his own people, President Clinton thought he was an “effective leader”. Obama did not see the danger either. So Putin managed to fool everyone – or rather – most world leaders WANTED to believe that Russia was not a threat and chose not to see the signs for what they were. Ukraine changed all that. It was such a shock that it did what most would think impossible. Unite the world in a way that we have never seen before. The reality is that the dividing lines between East and West have always been artificial and depended on who wanted power and often only one man who wanted that power and not the vast majority of the people themselves. There is little racial difference, religious difference and even cultural difference between Russians and the English. Traditions may be different but the essentials are basically the same. The differences are even more slight between Russians and Ukrainians. In that case the differences were so slight that the Ukrainians could not believe Russia would ever invade AND all the Russians who watch Russian state controlled news cannot believe that Russian troops would attack Ukrainian civilians. They believe what they are told as it fits to what makes sense to them. No matter how you cut it, this war is the result of the views of one man only. No wonder all free media has been silenced so the only views that the Russian people can see are the views of that one man. Putin.

For many years of the past 50 years the world was divided neatly between two opposing points of view. A binary world in other words.More recently we see that there are many more divisions than two. For starters we need to understand the starting point of the divisions today.

1. The USA from the first European arrivals was anti authoritarian in orientation. Escaping from religious persecution, ethnic persecution or political persecution. Revolution for independence, individual rights etc happened over 200 years ago. So Americans have had over 500 years of those views. of course this applies mostly to white Americans.

2. Russia has been authoritarian for many centuries with only brief moments that could be called “democratic”. The Tsars were authoritarian and though the communist revolution was at the start “democratic” it quickly reverted to authoritarianism. The period after the fall of the USSR saw a brief move towards democracy but it also soon became more authoritarian ending up with Putin today.

3. England began to diminish authoritarian power 800 years ago with the Magna Carta. The power of the King/Queen continued to be limited over the centuries until the monarchy virtually has no power which now rests totally with an elected Parliament.

4. France was confused with loose control from the Monarchy until Louis XIV centralized it to the point he planted the seeds of the French Revolution. The French Revolution eliminated the Monarchy entirely and fostered views of democracy of the people. The country veered back towards authoritarianism under Napoleon but the cat was out of the bag and that did not last long. It is a joke today that there are so may political views in France that forming a representative government is nearly impossible.

5. Germany had a propensity towards authoritarianism until it was beat out of it by the severe defeat of World War II. The end of World War II set the stage for the next 50 years of European history. The division was stark – Churchill called it the “iron curtain”. In the West most of the countries became democratic in orientation and independent from domination by foreign powers (Western Germany limited in some ways). Eastern Europe was dominated by the USSR and communism forced on the countries so authoritarian in nature just like the USSR was. When those countries tried to break away, Hungary for instance, Russian troops put it down. Germany was divided providing a clear visual of how life in the West was compared to life in the East. Both the USA and the USSR encouraged the hostility and we still have the word “communism” used as a political slur by such people as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Mark Levin who have no idea what it means and confuse it with socialism and even liberalism. Then the collapse of the USSR changed the stage yet again. The major point we need to know as it relates to what is happening today is what happened to all those countries that had been under Russian domination since the end of World War 2. Suffice it to say that Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia etc who knew what it was like to live under Russian domination pushed to protect themselves against their neighbor to the east. NATO was established just for that reason so they pushed to join NATO. East Germany merged with West Germany. The basic truth is that these countries wanted to be independent and not have a political system forced upon them. They also saw the benefits of the Western economic models and wanted to have those life styles available to them as well. They joined the European Economic Union. None of this was easy, some more messy than others, and not always perfect but none of the countries want to go back to the days of Russian domination and will fight to prevent that ever happening. Ukraine saw the same things and also wanted the same things that the EEC had and NATO would provide. Not all Ukrainians but the vast majority of them. Not all people in any country think alike. The most telling statistic we see in the Ukraine war is that just over 50,000 people fled to Russia while 1,300.000 fled to the West. It is clear that the vast majority of Ukrainians do not want to be a part of Russia any more than Poles do or Czechs. or whoever. At the same time there has been no moves by Ukraine to threaten Russia militarily and indeed they have little wherewithal to do so. They voluntarily gave up their nuclear weapons etc. Meanwhile, Putin is a child of the Regan era of international politics when the world was neatly divided between East and West. On one hand there should be no reason for seeing why such a division exists any more than Poland sees it that way. We in the US do not understand that thinking. On the other hand Putin is seeing the world in the traditional Russian authoritarian view that has existed for centuries. Add that to the emotional nationalistic view that Russia is no longer the great power it was and we have what Putin is thinking. Hitler used the same thinking during his rise in Germany. England and France had to come to terms that they were no longer top dogs just as Italy did centuries ago, and as Spain and Portugal had to. Putin is therefore bucking the reality of the world today. There is an appeal to “going back” to times that seemed better. We have “make America great again” in the USA as well. Unfortunately it is easy to forget what those “good times” really were like. There will always be those people who want to see things “from the other side”. People like Tucker Carlson and a few other right wing types want us to believe that NATO moving towards Russian borders was bound to cause Russian security concerns. They basically bought into the idea that there were two natural divisions between East and West. That Russia and the Western nations were always going to be stuck on opposite sides. Why? I would wager that most young Russians would not agree. Then there will be those appeasement types like Tulsi Gabbard who encourage the view that guarantee Ukraine will not join NATO and it will all be good. We saw that movie in 1939. In the end the reality is that it is not in the interests of the USA or any country in Europe including Russia for there to be this historical division. Western Russia is part of Europe. It has oil which Western Europe can use. The Russian people want the same things as do the people of Kansas City. So historically Putin is an unnecessary throwback to a time that did not make much sense then any more than it makes sense now. Bucking history is a loosing proposition as Putin will find out. We hope he finds out sooner than later.

All through history major leaders have made serious miscalculations. It is easy to do. Give a leader a few successes and people around him will be less likely to contradict him. To gain favor there is a propensity to tell him what he wants to hear. We have all seen whistle blowers loose their jobs and and not be able work in the same industry again. Hitler figured that England and France would not go to war over Poland. He also saw the very anti war sentiment in the USA. So invading Poland seemed a small risk and no one around him tried to stop him. Having seen the prelude to that decision one can see why he thought he could get away with it. Putin must have also gone through a similar thought process before deciding to invade Ukraine. So what might those thoughts have been?1. As for the Russian people themselves, the bulk of the media is state controlled so the message going to the people could be framed in a positive light. If things did not go well any negative media could be closed. Control the media and you control the people. 2. As for the people of Ukraine, a large show of force, tons of troops and weaponry on their border would likely cause a quick surrender and the leaders fleeing once an invasion was undertaken. Who wants to face such overwhelming odds? Besides many speak Russian and consider Russians brothers so resistance should be light.3. European nations especially Germany and Italy are unlikely to want to do much as they are so dependent on Russian oil. It’s winter and oil is necessary for heating. Germany is anti war anyway.4. NATO is not what it used to be and the thought of all those nations actually getting together to do anything is unlikely. It is doubtful that they trust the USA. Our friend Donald Trump has seen to that. The Eastern countries will want to do more than the rest but even so what can they do?5. The USA is divided. The most popular news network Fox says the US President is week and feckless. The poll numbers of public support are very low. Meanwhile the previous President Donald Trump still has a big following and can be counted on to say nice things about Russia and me (Putin) personally. Also on Fox we have Tucker Carlson saying he supports Russia and “why should I care about Ukraine”. The fact is there are a lot of US media people who will side with Russia and have no interest in Ukraine. There are even more who will attack the Democratic leadership and President. It’s election time after all. Fox in particular with people like Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham daily criticize and belittle the President so we can count on the US Government to bitch but not be able to do much but put up some sanctions. 6. Sanctions. There will be a lot initial talk that will dissipate when Ukraine surrenders and the leadership flees. We can deal with sanctions and it won’t be long before Europe will want oil and the US Government will be taken over by Republicans who are sympathetic to Russia anyway. We dealt with Sanctions after taking the Crimea so we can deal with any new ones as well.7. China will be supportive because it will help them in their quest to take over Taiwan. 8. Misinformation is rampant out there so there will be so many opinions that conflict that people will not know what to believe and will end up doing nothing. We don’t even need to feed the misinformation – it will happen on its own. The world is full of useful idiots. All the above are quite reasonable assumptions.