Putin made his move into Ukraine without any way to get out without loosing huge face. A very stupid strategy to be sure but that is what he did. So the US is correct that believing Russian statements about moving east are just about regrouping to continue the attempt to take over Ukraine in a few weeks. There is no way he can sell a more limited goal as if that was his intention in the first place. He made it all to clear what his intentions were at the beginning. Besides, there are only two ways for Putin. One is taking Ukraine and the other is getting removed from power by force. There are no half way houses for him. No off ramps. Either he wins or he looses and if he looses that will be his life.
Meanwhile the US and NATO have to see Putin defeated and Biden was totally right – he cannot remain in power in Russia. There is no way any company and most countries can do business with Russia again if Putin is the leader AND too many countries need to be able to deal with Russia. If someone in Russia cant kill him then there will be a hit man somewhere else that will do it. The stakes are too high – there is too much money involved- to leave Putin in power. So Putin has no choice. He either wins and does so sooner than later or he is a dead man. For everyone’s sake including the Russians, lets hope he is the latter.

Traveling to Europe for the past 10 days I got back to the US thinking something in the news would change. What I found was the Fox pundits, Hannity, Ingraham, etc still spend most of their time attacking anything Democrat and Biden. Are they employees of Trumpian “Republicans” or what? And the “extreme right wing” that still spouts Putin talking points and are shown regularly on Russian state TV? One would think with all the bad news we hear about Ukraine, everyone would focus on that without trying to score political points all the time or double down on support of ideas which we can all see are utter nonsense. — Still find it strange people who should know better are talking about an “off ramp” for Putin. Biden said it well “this man cannot remain in power”. Russians I know tell me they wake up each morning hoping to hear that Putin has been overthrown.
Whatever the US Government public position is on “regime change” the reality is that the world would be better off if Putin was eliminated. And it is the only realistic way to end the war in a way that gives Russia an off ramp, and allows Zilensky to have more maneuverability as well. There is no way that after entire cities have been destroyed, millions turned into refugees and displaced, not to mention all the deaths that letting Putin off the hook is a remote possibility. To imagine so is dreaming.
Looking at the Russian invasion of Ukraine from a long term view of what is the best outcome for the United States and the countries to the west of Russia, it is important for Putin and if there is such a thing as “Putinism” to be clearly defeated. It is NOT in anyone’s interests, not Russian, the US nor Europeans including Ukrainians for Putin to win. The Europeans need Russia to be brought back into the fold, for Russian oil to be available, as well as grain, fertilizer etc and Ukrainian agricultural goods such as wheat. Putin’s idea that Russia must be separate from Europe has to be defeated once and for all just like Germany was after world war two. A Putin defeat will also cause the Chinese to think twice about invading Taiwan.
All the criticism about Biden’s supposed gaffe calling for “regime change” is bullshit. Of course what we want is regime change, not just for US interests, European, Ukrainian but also for Russian. Free the Russian press. Free Navalny and allow opposition, and bring back McDonalds! Putin’s world view is way out of date. We also have to put the idea of a nuclear exchange potential back in the box or we will one day have to face it for real. Putin has opened that door, the world has to close it again and fast before the idea catches on.
Another bit of news I found interesting were the revelations about the wife of Supreme Court Judge Clarence Thomas. Always thought he was a kook, but his wife it turns out is REALLY the kooky one. Referred to as a “conservative activist” I cannot see how overthrowing the US Government can be considered “conservative”. She is no Republican nor a Conservative – just a nutty and dangerous kook in a position to influence an important arm of our US government.

It seems one can never escape from positive references to Donald Trump even when it comes to Ukraine. Fox “News”uses the war as a way to tout “what Trump would have done” or “why did Russia not invade while Trump was President?” As an intellectual exercise lets look at what Putin must have been thinking. First, I think it is safe to assume that Putin thought that Trump was going to be re-elected President, Second that the idea of invading Ukraine was already set in Putin’s mind. If Trump had been re-elected one could assume that Trump would most likely push Russian interests over Ukrainian giving Putin a free hand. As a consistent practitioner of revenge one can also assume having not succeeded getting Zilensky to play ball and give him dirt on Biden he would have little sympathy for Ukraine and take pleasure in taking his revenge on Zilensky. He made it clear oftn that he did not have much regard for Ukraine while at the same time he touted his “great relationship” with Putin. He proved this when he called the Russian invasion “genius” and Putin “smart”.
Add the negative feeling for Ukraine and the positive feeling for Putin to the antipathy towards NATO and the Western European leaders and we have a scenario that Zilensky could not have believed Western Europe nor the USA would come to his aid. Trump was vocal in his disdain for the European Economic Union and cheered Britain leaving the block with Brexit. It is unlikely that the European nations would have pulled together if they knew the US was apathetic to Ukraine. Trump felt much like useful idiot Tucker Carlson “why should we care about Ukraine?” The US absent from the game would undermine any moves the Western Europeans might have taken.
So if Trump had been President it is likely that Ukraine would have been forced to give in to Russian demands – Putin could have gotten what he wanted without firing a shot much like Hitler in 1938.
Why did Russia not invade during Trump’s Presidency? Several reasons come to mind. First Trump was doing what Putin wanted so why rock the boat and put Trump in an awkward position. “If it ain’t broke dont fix it”. Second, the Russian army was not yet ready to take on a country as large as Ukraine even with the false assumptions Putin made. Turns out it was even less ready in 2022.
Meanwhile one should also note that Fox has not been shy at calling President Biden “weak” and “feckless” so an argument can be made that Fox contributed to Putin’s idea that he could get away with taking Ukraine and not much would happen. One of the channel’s main pundits is often played on Russian propaganda stations as he touts Putin’s talking points. The station often gives voice to appeasement types so it is fair to add Fox to one of the supporting reasons for Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

In spite of the tragic events we see every hour on out TV screens inflicted by the Putin war on Ukraine, – taking a dispassionate view (if possible?) it is interesting to see the reaction of the media – especially Fox “News”, Aside from some excellent reporting from the field, the pundits, the bimbo brigade, and appeasement types like useful idiot Tucker Carlson, Fox cannot help but use every opportunity to either make fun of the President and Vice President and all Democrats in general or belittle all policies as if there is an election happening next week and Fox is 100% supporting the Republicans and the Trump fans within that party. Easy to criticize if you dont have to take responsibility. Hannity for instance spent a few minutes with an impassioned support of the Ukrainians then turned to his usual mix of belittling and attacking the President and what he calls the supposed Democrat “radical socialist” policies like climate change. Laura Ingraham is almost worse as she is less convincing and adds a bit of appeasement into her mix. Useful idiot Tucker Carlson; well he has become very “useful” to Putin and appears regularly on Russian TV spouting Putin talking points. Why Fox has a team of obvious bimbos talking military strategy they know nothing about is strange given they have women on the network who are not stupid and can make sense when they are not forced to follow party lines. The problem is when you say something stupid then something smart the truth is muddied along with credibility. Particularly interesting today, is the support from the Fox bimbo brigade for the Russian producer on TV 1 in Russia who dared to call out what was happening in Ukraine and her shame for the propaganda spouted daily on the station while they are guilty of never veering off party line politics themselves.
Its tough to see the brutality of the Putin agenda and marry that to Trump’s cheerleading for Putin and authoritarianism. The only pleasure of this war is watching the squirming of the right wing media and politicians as they try to avoid unfortunate truths and associations.

It is disturbing to still hear ideas of an off ramp for Putin. How does one give an off ramp to a war criminal? The only off ramp is for a new leader of Russia. Who is going to repay for the damage to all the cities and towns of Ukraine? Are the people going to accept all the deaths and see no one pay a price? The time will soon come that we will have to call Putin’s bluff. The threat of nuclear war will cause the people around Putin to finally get rid of him. They dont want a nuclear war either.

There is a US midterm election coming up so Fox “News” devotes its narrative to attacking the Democratic President, Vice President and any other Democrat they can attack. Its easier to attack than defend when the defense has to face the consequences but the attacker does not. The main attack is on oil policy of the Biden Presidency. However there is one reality that has been missed but starting with what is an obvious truth. The US and Europe need to be free from dependence on oil, and gas. We can all agree on that.
Meanwhile; IF greater attention and investment had gone into renewables 20 years ago – then the need for so much oil and gas would be far less today. Climate Change deniers (Trump was one lets not forget) can therefore be blamed for the current predicament just as much as much as any current Biden policy.
The other truth is that no matter what policy is adopted today it will have little effect on oil supply in the short term. In the long term building solar electricity facilities can have just much impact as drilling, building new oil facilities, pipelines or the like can. The difference is that the former is the smarter strategy for the long term future of the planet.

Republican talking points are stating that the Polls show that Biden is not perceived to be doing well on anything THEREFORE he should change course. Kelly Anne Conway went so far as to say that “changing course” based on what polls were saying was what good leaders should do. She is incorrect. Leaders that change course based on polls are not “leaders” they are followers. The great leaders take the long view and do not succumb to polls that tell you what people think today.

There is so much talk on every side about what to do amid horrible scenes we witness on TV. Some use the war as an excuse to criticize opponents, others talk of appeasement, all would like it to stop. However there are some realities we need to face.
1. As Sting said in his lyric “the Russians love their children too”. BOTH the WEST and RUSSIA do not want a nuclear war.
2. Putin has alone threatened nuclear war and by doing so seemingly stopped moves to make him cease what he is doing. This is a lesson for him as well as other nations considering getting a nuclear weapon. We cannot allow such thinking to succeed. Putin’s bluff needs to be called now or we will pay a price later.
3. There is a lot of talk about an “off ramp”. All the talk is giving one to Putin. The reality is that there IS an off ramp for Russia BUT there is not for Putin. AND there also has to be an off ramp for Zilensky and the Ukrainians and for the West as well. No nation or leader can end the conflict without having someone pay the price of all the tragedy we have seen. Lucky for the Russians, Putin alone has been blamed so his removal from power opens up the doors to compromise. No one is going to let a War Comitial off the hook and the Ukrainians certainly will not nor should they. The sooner we realize that the better for everyone.
4. The COMPROMISE could look something like this: A. If Putin is arrested and delivered to the Hague to stand trial for war crimes AND all Russian troops leave Ukraine the West will immediately end all sanctions – on banks, oligarchs, oil, EVERYTHING. No general or government official below Putin will be blamed nor prosecuted. B. Ukraine will agree to let the Russian section of the Dombas hold elections monitored by the UN and if the region decides to leave Ukraine and join Russia the Ukraine will end its claim to that region. The same goes for Crimea. C. Ukraine will agree NOT to join NATO provided Russia agrees to demilitarize its border area with Ukraine AND to recognize Ukraine as an independent sovereign nation. D. Ukraine WILL be free to join the European Union if it wishes to and is invited to do so. E. No offensive weapons will be placed in Ukraine.

The reality is simple. A compromise can be reached BUT there is one thing stopping it and that is PUTIN. Incentive must be given to the Russian people AND to the Russian generals and government leaders to make a compromise possible. Give Russia an off ramp but NOT Putin. Give Zilensky and the Ukrainian people an off ramp as well. With those off ramps this horrible war can end.

One thing about the Ukraine War is it makes us think about ideas we have accepted as fact in the past.
For instance, why does anyone believe that Russia should be any different from France or Great Britain or ancient Rome or ancient Greece?
Those countries and civilizations had to face the reality that they were no longer the great powers they once were. The fact that Putin can’t accept that Russia is no longer a super power is his failing not ours. Great Britain had to face this fact, so did France and civilizations going back to the beginning of recorded time. Russia ranks 11 in the GDP scale behind such countries like Canada, and Italy. The only reason it is not being bombed back to the stone age now is because it has nuclear weapons.
I hear some commentators saying Russia has not gotten the respect it deserved as a means to justify Putin’s thinking. Perhaps those commentators believe a GDP ranking of 11 makes one special. The reality is that Russia is not any more special then Britain or France are and there is no reason it should be treated so. In fact, placing it on the United Nations security council is a gift it should not get based on its economy. Other countries are more deserving in that regard. Meanwhile, France, Britain, India, Pakistan, China, Israel and Pakistan not to mention the USA are also nuclear powers and probably North Korea as well. Should they all get more respect just because they have nuclear weapons? And lets be real – the world is not binary any more. If anything China is a far bigger deal than Russia ever will be. India could be as well. Putin and his successors will have to get used to the fact that times have changed, just like Great Britain, France, Spain, etc etc had to. Or they need to buckle up and take advantage of the vast resources it has and develop its economic potential to become a world leader. If its leaders want to be treated as great they need to make the country great. Invading Ukraine will not make them great.
Sorry, I don’t buy the argument that Russia was mistreated. It was treated just as it deserved. Putin is just another cry baby except he has nuclear weapons. That is reality.

A little known Russian breakaway region of Moldova borders Moldova and Ukraine and if the Odessa area is taken by Russia the Transnistria region of Moldova will certainly be taken as well. Just under 30% of the Transnistria region are Russian but they run the place and presumably would rejoice at being joined to Russia. Moldova should be preparing which means Rumania as well. The Ukrainian invasion might well end up being more than Ukraine.