Miles Copeland, III

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Trump again?

It seems one can never escape from positive references to Donald Trump even when it comes to Ukraine. Fox “News”uses the war as a way to tout “what Trump would have done” or “why did Russia not invade while Trump was President?” As an intellectual exercise lets look at what Putin must have been thinking. First, I think it is safe to assume that Putin thought that Trump was going to be re-elected President, Second that the idea of invading Ukraine was already set in Putin’s mind. If Trump had been re-elected one could assume that Trump would most likely push Russian interests over Ukrainian giving Putin a free hand. As a consistent practitioner of revenge one can also assume having not succeeded getting Zilensky to play ball and give him dirt on Biden he would have little sympathy for Ukraine and take pleasure in taking his revenge on Zilensky. He made it clear oftn that he did not have much regard for Ukraine while at the same time he touted his “great relationship” with Putin. He proved this when he called the Russian invasion “genius” and Putin “smart”.
Add the negative feeling for Ukraine and the positive feeling for Putin to the antipathy towards NATO and the Western European leaders and we have a scenario that Zilensky could not have believed Western Europe nor the USA would come to his aid. Trump was vocal in his disdain for the European Economic Union and cheered Britain leaving the block with Brexit. It is unlikely that the European nations would have pulled together if they knew the US was apathetic to Ukraine. Trump felt much like useful idiot Tucker Carlson “why should we care about Ukraine?” The US absent from the game would undermine any moves the Western Europeans might have taken.
So if Trump had been President it is likely that Ukraine would have been forced to give in to Russian demands – Putin could have gotten what he wanted without firing a shot much like Hitler in 1938.
Why did Russia not invade during Trump’s Presidency? Several reasons come to mind. First Trump was doing what Putin wanted so why rock the boat and put Trump in an awkward position. “If it ain’t broke dont fix it”. Second, the Russian army was not yet ready to take on a country as large as Ukraine even with the false assumptions Putin made. Turns out it was even less ready in 2022.
Meanwhile one should also note that Fox has not been shy at calling President Biden “weak” and “feckless” so an argument can be made that Fox contributed to Putin’s idea that he could get away with taking Ukraine and not much would happen. One of the channel’s main pundits is often played on Russian propaganda stations as he touts Putin’s talking points. The station often gives voice to appeasement types so it is fair to add Fox to one of the supporting reasons for Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

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