Who Really Knows what is happening vis a vis Ukraine and US interests”Listening to John Ratcliffe, a Trump political appointee to be Director of National Intelligence who was disgraced when it became apparent he contradicted his own intelligence people when intelligence assessments differed from a Trump position and sidelined intelligence offices in the process, one can see how ignorant people can be in discussing the US-Ukraine-Russia-Europe situation. According to Ratcliffe the US should have sent troops to Europe long ago to try to head off Russian adventurism on the borders of Ukraine. What he fails to understand – and Indeed Trump himself as we see from his recent interviews – is that the problem for the US is not a Russian invasion of the Ukraine. It is keeping NATO relevant and keeping the Western Europeans understanding that Russia under Putin is actually a real threat.

Putin has made clear what he wants to happen in Europe so that is no mystery. Just like Hitler did in “Mein Kampf” announcing to the world what makes him tick. The problem has been making people believe it and want to make the sacrifices to do something about it. In this regard Putin has done the US and NATO a huge favor. The last thing the US should have wanted to do was stop Putin from doing that. Ukraine is becoming to Putin what Poland became to Hitler. A bridge too far that showed his intentions in a way that could not be denied. He has given the US and Western Europe a wake up call.     

Guys like John Ratcliffe, who was a rather stupid choice for National Intelligence Director anyway, would not understand the subtitles of the real behind the scenes issues. Just like the idiots who say the US should have been sending arms to Ukraine long ago – not realizing that the smarter move is to send the arms and keep it secret. As I learned long ago from my CIA father, there are two things going on 1. What you hear in public and 2. what is going on behind the scenes.     

The realities are that 1. Russia has never been threatened by NATO and to say otherwise is utter nonsense. NATO expanding members close to Russian borders posed no threat to Russia. Every European leader knows what Putin is saying is bullshit.  2. Russia is the big looser in an all out war so Putin knows he has to avoid that at all costs. So he has adopted the “Speak loudly and show a big stick – but make sure you don’t actually use that stick”. What he wants is to accomplish what Hitler did in Czechoslovakia. Win without firing a shot. Unfortunately for Putin we have seen this movie before. Also unfortunately for Putin he has woken up a pack of sleeping dogs.  Thank you Putin.     

Though it is not something one can say in public – there are advantages to the US if Putin invades Ukraine.  That is real politique.