Conspiracy theories are all the rage these days. Trump still claims the election was stolen and a not insignificant chunk of the public believe him. Russia is selling that Ukraine photos and videos of the war and especially what happened in Bucha is “fake news” and created by Ukraine to support their point of view – and a not insignificant chunk of the Russian public believe it. Its amazing what people will believe if they want to -AND if they watch only one source of news. Its true: if you know how to do it you can sell snow to the Eskimos.
So imagine if the Biden administration was setting Putin up with a war in Ukraine in a devious plan to achieve short term and long term goals fostering the interests of the United States. What would those goals have looked like?
1. The US long term interests depend on a close relationship with allies to maintain a counter balance to China. That means keeping Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada and Europe on side. Lets face it; with Brexit in the UK, Victor Orban in Hungary, Germany becoming reliant on Russian oil and even Polish issues, Europe was looking like it was beginning to fray. Donald Trump did not help and was vocal in his opposition to the idea of a European Union. So it was imperative to keep Europe together economically.
2. Like the EEC NATO was becoming viewed as no longer relevant- also encouraged by Donald Trump who also rightly complained that many of the countries did not pay their fair share of the costs. The Biden administration considered NATO not only relevant but also important AND like Trump wanted each European country to pay what they were supposed to. Also like previous administrations were not happy about Germany and others becoming more dependent on Russian oil and gas. So in the short term, it was important for Putin’s Russia to be seen as a potential threat.
3. Putin was moving Russia back to the time it saw the West as the natural enemy AND towards an autocratic form of government akin to the time of the Tsars. In an ever more interdependent world this movement was not good for anybody. The idea that Russia was always “on the other side” had to be nipped in the bud before it became a real problem. So Putin and his way of thinking had to go. Needless to say such autocratic thinking was also taking hold in the US and some Western countries so undermining Putin think was important in that regard as well.
4. The Russian army has to be seen as the paper tiger it really was and Russian arms less attractive on the world market.
5. Ukraine was becoming an issue that needed to be resolved. It wanted to become an EEC member AND join NATO. Yet there were “fraternal feelings” between Russians and Ukrainians that might stand in the way so cleaning up where Ukraine was headed and where Russia was headed under Putin had to be brought to a head.
6. Of course there were some other benefits like the profits the defense industry would reap from a shooting war, the profits the oil companies (many US owned) would make from less oil on the market etc. Then there was the problem of demographics and the declining populations of Europe who could use a new blood work force- blood preferably from another European country not Africa or the Middle East. On top of that, a brain drain from Russia towards the West might also be a benefit as to the more educated were not likely to go for the direction Putin was taking Russia in.
So there were many benefits that might be achieved by Russia going to war with Ukraine. But how would one get Putin to fall for the plot? Would he be that stupid? Well, Fox News and the Republicans have been quite vocal 24/7 fostering the view that Biden was weak and ineffectual and indeed Tucker Carlson went so far as to say “Why should I care about Ukraine?” So it would be easy to come to the conclusion that the US would squawk but be unlikely to do something other than slap a few sanctions on Russia. Europe too would likely squawk but then again the dependence on oil and gas would most likely keep the EEC divided and not able to do much. Remember, not much happened after the Crimea take over. Ukraine would likely fold as Zilensky would likely take up the US on its offer to escape and form a government in exile.
From Putin’s perspective a war with Ukraine posed little long term problems and he presumed a short term victory that would enhance his popularity as taking the Crimea had done. Put enough force on the boarder and it should be over quickly and soon be forgotten.
So what happened? In short, US interests have won out like in a big way. NATO is revived big time, EEC strengthened, Germany terminating Northstream 2 and moving to get off of Russian gas AND finally increasing its defense budget ( now number 3 after the US and China). Ukraine and Russia now firmly in opposite camps. Russian army and Putin’s intentions seen for what they really are. When Putin is finally defeated and overthrown the plot will have succeeded in all expectations.
The unfortunate thing of course, is all the Ukrainians who will die in the process